Mixed Signals
Collecting public opinion data can be a complicated task, but not nearly as complicated as interpreting it. A recent Pew survey found that support for sustained troop involvement in Afghanistan fell mostly along party lines (71% of Republicans, 37% of Democrats), with overall approval slipping over the last 3 months (57% to 50%). With no clear trend indicated, these numbers make it difficult to form a substantial policy based on consensus.
In another poll conducted by Stanford University and the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, participants were asked if they supported a federal ban on insurance companies denying health care coverage based on pre-existing conditions. Support fell dramatically when the participants were told what such a ban would cost.
In both cases, poll takers failed to understand the depth of the problem by overlooking the various dimensions of these issues. Results may depend on a participants affiliations or previous knowledge of the subject matter, but also a myriad of other factors that can’t be explored in a 3 minute phone call or mall interview. Statisticians call these interrelations coherence, the subtle interaction of several tiny factors painting a larger picture. Breaking down issues into their intrinsic components is they only way to understand these seeming inconsistencies.